In the first three quarters of 2025, the Dutch government spent €11 billion more than it received. That is not a slogan, it is a simple piece of bookkeeping, and it matters because bookkeeping always travels downhill. When the state runs a larger deficit, the effects do not stay in The Hague. They end up, quietly but reliably, in the everyday life of a business owner: in tax rules that tighten, in subsidies that become more selective, in public contracts that slow down, and in a general policy mood that shifts from generosity to control. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) published these preliminary figures just days ago, and they show a deficit €9 billion larger than the same period last year. 

Now, if you run a micro or small business, your instinct might be to stop reading at the word “deficit.” It sounds like politics, and politics often feels like theatre. But the numbers here are not theatre. They are signals. The Ministry of Finance, in the 2025 Autumn Memorandum, expects the deficit to end the year at €21.9 billion, about 1.8% of GDP. That is not catastrophic by European standards, but it is meaningful. It tells you that the state is choosing to spend more in a period where it is also trying to keep debt under control, and that combination usually brings new rules.

Let me anchor this in a familiar scene. Imagine a small logistics company in Almere: six employees, two leased vans, a modest warehouse, and a client base that depends partly on public tenders and partly on private contracts. The owner is not thinking about GDP. He is thinking about whether fuel costs settle down, whether the wage bill stabilises, and whether his clients will keep paying within thirty days. When the government increases spending, parts of that spending do flow back into the economy, sometimes even into his business. But when spending rises faster than revenue, the next phase is often a search for “structural balance.” That is the polite phrase for a state that starts looking around for where it can cut, postpone, or collect more. And small businesses always feel those shifts early, because we are the part of the economy that cannot hide behind complex structures.

One striking detail in the CBS figures is not only the deficit itself, but how fast the overall government machine has grown. Annual government expenditure, measured as the sum of four quarters, has now exceeded €500 billion for the first time, reaching around €521 billion. Since 2019, spending has risen by roughly half, from almost €350 billion then to today’s level. This growth is broad, covering many categories, from government wages to benefits and transfers abroad. Transfers abroad rose relatively sharply, partly due to remittances to the EU and support for Ukraine.

Revenues have also crossed €500 billion, but here the story changes. Revenues as a share of GDP are actually lower than in 2019, while spending as a share of GDP is higher. That gap is the real engine of the deficit: not a single dramatic event, but a structural shift where the state has become larger in relation to the economy, while the revenue side has not kept pace. This matters to you because structural gaps are not solved with one-off measures. They are solved with multi-year policy adjustments.

And yet, here is the part that confuses many people: despite the deficit, the debt ratio fell. Government debt stood at €494 billion at the end of the third quarter, about 42.4% of GDP, and that ratio is down by 1.4 percentage points compared to the beginning of the year. In fact, CBS notes that this is the lowest level in 30 years. How is that possible? Because the economy, measured in euros, has grown faster than the debt. Also, the government financed part of the deficit by reducing financial assets, such as deposits, rather than borrowing the full amount. In plain language: they paid part of the bill from the savings account, not only with a new loan.

For the micro-entrepreneur, this is the key nuance: the Netherlands is not in a debt crisis. The state has room to manoeuvre. The debt ratio is far below the European ceiling of 60%, and even the government’s own projection for year-end is about 44.2% of GDP, still comfortably below that threshold. That is why you should not panic when you hear “deficit.” But you should also not ignore it, because room to manoeuvre does not mean decisions will be painless. It means the government will choose where the pain goes.

You can already see where some of the money is going. CBS mentions net lending, including loans to the state-owned grid company TenneT, linked to strengthening the electricity network. That may sound distant, but it is not. It signals a longer period of heavy investment in infrastructure and energy transition. This is where many small businesses will meet the deficit story in practice: through new requirements, new opportunities, and new costs. If your business relies on energy-intensive processes, if you operate machinery, refrigeration, charging infrastructure, or even just a larger office, you are not watching a macroeconomic statistic. You are watching the future pricing and reliability of the power grid being built, financed, and governed right now.

So what should you do with this information, beyond reading it and moving on? First, treat government finances as a weather system, not a moral drama. When the deficit grows, the policy climate becomes more unpredictable, and the small business owner’s job is to reduce vulnerability. That starts with cash discipline. Not because doom is coming, but because uncertainty always punishes the business that relies on perfect timing. A stronger buffer, even a modest one, is not conservative. It is intelligent. Second, assume that the next two years will bring a tighter link between public spending and conditions. Subsidies, tax incentives, and sector support will increasingly come with compliance expectations: reporting, sustainability criteria, employment conditions, digital security standards. If you are already organising your administration well, you will experience those requirements as manageable. If your paperwork is always “something for later,” this is where later becomes expensive.

There is also a quiet psychological trap here, and I see it often. When entrepreneurs hear that the government is spending more, they assume that demand will automatically rise, and they expand too quickly. But public spending does not flow evenly into the real economy. Some sectors feel it, others do not. Meanwhile, higher spending can also mean higher labour pressure in certain markets, more competition for skilled people, and, eventually, a political appetite for higher taxes or reduced deductions. This is why the right response is not optimism or pessimism, but precision. Grow where you have proven margins. Tighten where you have hidden waste. Keep your pricing honest. And never confuse turnover with stability.

The Netherlands remains financially strong by European standards, and that strength is real. But the numbers also say something else: the state is becoming larger and more active, and when the state becomes larger, the rules surrounding it always grow as well. That is not ideology. It is a pattern. The wise entrepreneur does not fight patterns. He prepares for them.

The deficit is a headline, but the deeper message is quieter: we are entering a period where money is still available, but it will be more deliberately directed. For micro and small businesses, the advantage will go to those who stay calm, keep their administration clean, build a bit more resilience than feels necessary, and watch policy shifts the way sailors watch wind. Not to fear the sea, but to sail it well.