You don’t run a micro business by staring at economic indicators. You run it by watching your cash flow, your clients’ behaviour, and the quiet changes in everyday spending. Still, the national numbers matter, because they eventually show up in your world: in the speed of payments, the ease of getting financing, the confidence of customers, and the willingness of companies to invest.

CBS’s latest Business Cycle Tracer was slightly less negative in December than in November, but the broader picture remains cautious. Ten of the thirteen indicators are still below their long-term trend. That is not a crisis signal, but it is not a comfortable tailwind either. It is a reminder that the Dutch economy is moving forward with some resistance.

A simple real-life example makes this clearer. Imagine a small café owner in Amersfoort. The tables are still full, but customers linger longer before ordering that extra pastry. They ask more often for tap water. They split the bill more carefully. Nothing dramatic, but the pattern shifts. This is what a “less negative” economy often looks like on the ground: not panic, but hesitation.

The data supports that feeling. Consumer confidence stayed just as negative in December as in November, while producer confidence improved slightly. Consumers remain cautious, even when businesses start to feel steadier. Meanwhile, household consumption grew: in October 2025, people consumed 0.8 percent more than a year earlier, adjusted for prices. Exports also rose strongly: up 5.6 percent, mainly in machinery and electronics. That helped push GDP up: GDP rose 0.5 percent in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter.

But there is a weak spot that matters: investment. Investments in tangible fixed assets fell 0.4 percent in October compared to a year earlier, with a notable drop in transport-related assets like vans and trucks. Investment is often the clearest behaviour of confidence. When it shrinks, it usually means businesses are waiting before committing cash.

And then there is the uncomfortable headline: bankruptcies. In November 2025, 54 more companies were declared bankrupt than in October, a 21 percent increase. That does not mean disaster, but it does mean the fragile layer of the economy is cracking. For small business owners, the practical implication is simple: check your dependency points. Know which clients are slow payers, which suppliers are essential, and what would hurt if one link suddenly fails.

The labour market remains stable, with unemployment at 4.0 percent, while vacancies keep declining slowly. Housing prices continue to rise too: existing homes were 6.1 percent more expensive in November 2025 than a year earlier, even though the pace is levelling off. This feeds into wage expectations and consumer psychology, even if your business has nothing to do with property.

So what does this “slightly less negative” outlook mean for you? It means 2026 rewards precision. This is not the time for reckless expansion, but it is also not the time to freeze. Keep a tighter grip on cash, shorten your payment cycles where you can, and watch client behaviour like you watch your own numbers. Consumers are cautious, but they are still spending, and those who adapt their offer to the new spending mood will be the ones who feel the improvement first.

The Tracer is macro, and your reality is specific. The economy may be slightly below trend, but a well-run small business can still grow within it. The sky is still grey, yes, but it is not getting darker. For an entrepreneur, that is enough to keep moving, with steady hands and clear eyes.