What is the situation?

Dutch transport revenue grew 4.4% in 2025, with bankruptcies down 26%. Yet business confidence is negative at -4.7.This divergence between subsectors is notable. Land transport grew 4.8%, supported by over 180 million e-commerce purchases. In contrast, aviation prices rose 33.5% due to capacity limits at Schiphol, while maritime prices fell 9.1%, the steepest drop in 16 years.Eastern European hauliers now carry 55.4% of cross-border volume. Labor shortages persist, with 47 vacancies per 1,000 jobs and higher absenteeism than pre-COVID levels.Taken together, the signal is clear: growth exists, but profitability and control are under pressure.

Analysis

This is a classic quality-of-growth problem. Revenue growth does not translate into stable margins.Small operators face three structural tensions. Rising labor costs, price pressure from lower-cost foreign competitors, and uneven pricing power across subsectors.Macro data suggests recovery, but operational reality is fragmented. A road transport company tied to e-commerce sees demand but shrinking margins. A maritime operator faces structural overcapacity with no pricing leverage.The confidence gap is rational. Founders are reacting to deteriorating cost structures before they appear in annual results.

Impact

H1

Act now: Tighten cost and pricing controls. Benchmark pricing against labor, fuel, and compliance costs weekly. Ensure every contract maintains margin discipline.

H2

Monitor competitor strength. Review your positioning weekly and adjust strategy to address visible weaknesses quickly.

H3

Structural change in market power. Eastern European operators and infrastructure constraints reshape price trends across subsectors.

Daily operational takeaway

Review your top three profitable and unprofitable clients or routes this week. If you cannot quantify contribution margin, you are operating without control.