What is the situation?
Dutch e-commerce spending fell 1% to €35.7 billion in 2025, while transaction volume stayed flat at 347 million purchases. Cross-border orders rose 9% to 44.8 million, and Chinese platforms captured 31% of that volume.
The real signal is not a weaker demand. It is price deflation and falling order value. Dutch consumers are still buying, but at lower prices and more often through offshore platforms with different cost structures.
Mobile adds another pressure point. It now drives 41% of purchases, but the average order value is only €79, versus €122 on desktop.
For small Dutch businesses, this is a structural squeeze, as pricing power, margin, and channel control are under long-term pressure.
The data, sourcing, and analysis behind this article were conducted by Paolo Maria Pavan. AI was not used to identify sources, build the factual basis, or produce the analytical judgment contained here. AI was used only as a drafting aid. The final English text was personally reviewed, edited, and approved by the author before publication. Any translated versions are AI-generated from the original English text.
Analysis
This market is splitting.
Physical goods still move, especially in categories like Home & Living, but more of that demand is leaking out to the rest of the world. Service businesses face a different problem: online demand is weakening, with volumes down 11%.
The main distortion is that stable order volume can look healthy while profitability quietly deteriorates.
For micro and small firms, fixed costs do not fall when the basket value falls. Platform fees, compliance costs, returns, labor, and fulfillment remain.
That means many founders are reading traffic and order counts as growth indicators when the real issue is shrinking value per transaction.
The blind spot is dependency. If the margin is already thin, one fee increase, one algorithm change, or one extra price cut can turn online growth into a loss-making activity.
Impact
H1
Review average order value, gross margin by channel, and net margin after marketplace fees. Flat order count is not healthy if each transaction contributes less cash.
H2
Identify and address heavy reliance on any single platform or category that is vulnerable to offshore price competition. Take steps to build direct channels, focus on repeat customers, develop bundles and service add-ons, and accelerate delivery where price competition is unsustainable.
H3
Prioritize compliance, product traceability, and reliability as firm capabilities. Invest in systems to track these, anticipating that future regulations may favor well-prepared Dutch businesses with stronger trust and pricing resilience.
Daily operational takeaway
Check one month of orders by device and channel. Identify where the average order value declined the most and where fees or returns already consume the margin.
