What is the situation?
The Netherlands has a strong gas infrastructure, but a weak starting position.
By 15 March 2026, Dutch gas storage had fallen to 7.4%, the lowest seasonal level since 2011 outside the 2022 energy crisis.
Gasunie had already called 10.5% a historic low.
At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz crisis sharply disrupted shipping, with traffic through the strait reported down by about 95% in early to mid-March.
That matters because the Netherlands now needs a large and fast refill in a much more expensive market.
GTS says supply security for 2026-2027 is achievable, but only if storage is sufficiently refilled and international supply chains stay operational. T
he system still works. The position has deteriorated.
The data, sourcing, and analysis behind this article were conducted by Paolo Maria Pavan. AI was not used to identify sources, build the factual basis, or produce the analytical judgment contained here. AI was used only as a drafting aid. The final English text was personally reviewed, edited, and approved by the author before publication. Any translated versions are AI-generated from the original English text.
Analysis
For micro and small businesses, this is not mainly an energy story.
It is a timing-risk story.
Storage, contracts, inventory, and liquidity all look efficient until the refill moment arrives in a worse market.
Diesel gives the clearest operational signal: on 9 March 2026, Dutch diesel was about €2.255 per litre, among the highest in the EU, while transport operators were already warning about cost pressure.
Official inflation was still only 2.4% in February, with food prices even softening the headline.
That is exactly the blind spot.
Behaviour changes first, invoices next, statistics last. If you wait for macro confirmation, you usually act after suppliers, carriers, and competitors have already repriced.
Impact
H1
Expect more pressure on energy, transport, and restocking costs over the next 30 to 90 days. Review variable-price exposure, delivery terms, and any dependency on just-in-time purchasing before suppliers further tighten stipulations.
H2
Working capital becomes the real stress point. Longer lead times plus higher input costs tie up cash faster than many SMEs can reprice customers. Fintech lending growth in SME finance is one signal that liquidity pressure was already building before this shock.
H3
Treat this as a real-time resilience test. Build capacity with a position. Ensure you are capitalized for market volatility, not just stability. Check if your business can withstand swings even while demand holds.
Daily operational takeaway
Map your next 90 days of fixed costs, fuel exposure, and key supplier dependencies today. The priority is not forecasting the crisis perfectly.
It is time to make the buying decision before repricing impacts your cash flow.
