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23 Articles

Paolo Maria Pavan ×

Wage pressure slows, margins still tighten

by Paolo Maria Pavan

Apr 6, 2026

What is the situation? Dutch CAO wages rose 4.5% year-on-year in Q1 2026, down from 5.4% a year earlier and below the 6.8% peak in Q3 2024. But the slowdown should not be mistaken for relief. Real wag...

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Land costs are repricing faster

by Paolo Maria Pavan

Apr 5, 2026

What is the situation? Dutch new-build plot prices rose 13.6% in 2025, and 15.3% year on year in Q4 2025. This was the fourth straight quarter of faster growth. Average plot prices now range widely by...

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Dutch e-commerce margin squeeze deepens

by Paolo Maria Pavan

Apr 4, 2026

What is the situation? Dutch e-commerce spending fell 1% to €35.7 billion in 2025, while transaction volume stayed flat at 347 million purchases. Cross-border orders rose 9% to 44.8 million, and Chine...

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Retail growth, but not real demand

by Paolo Maria Pavan

Apr 3, 2026

What is the situation? Dutch retail turnover rose 1.3% in February 2026, but sales volume rose only 0.6%. That means part of the growth came from price, not from more units sold. Online turnover incre...

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Dutch economy softens further in March

by Paolo Maria Pavan

Apr 2, 2026

What is the situation? CBS says the March 2026 business-cycle picture weakened further. Nine of thirteen indicators were below their long-term trend. Consumer confidence fell to -30 from -24 in Februa...

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Dutch slowdown sharpens cash discipline

by Paolo Maria Pavan

Apr 2, 2026

What is the situation? The Dutch short-cycle picture worsened in March 2026. CBS shows consumer confidence fell to -30 from -24, the economic climate component dropped to -54 from -42, and the Busines...

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Inflation back up, pressure back on

by Paolo Maria Pavan

Apr 1, 2026

What is the situation? Dutch inflation rose to 2.7% in March 2026, up from 2.4% in February. The main signal is not broad overheating. It is a renewed cost shock in the parts of the economy that small...

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Dutch factory prices fall, but not evenly

by Paolo Maria Pavan

Mar 31, 2026

What is the situation? Dutch manufacturing output prices were 2.3% lower year-on-year in February 2026 and 0.3% higher than in January. The main downward pressure came from oil-linked sectors. CBS sho...

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Dutch deficit rises, founder costs follow

by Paolo Maria Pavan

Mar 30, 2026

What is the situation? The Dutch government ran a €19 billion deficit in 2025, equal to 1.6% of GDP, up from 0.7% in 2024. Government spending reached €529 billion, revenue €510 billion, and public de...

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Founders earn less from the same economy

by Paolo Maria Pavan

Mar 29, 2026

What is the situation? CBS says Dutch employee compensation grew 6.4% in 2025, while mixed income from self-employment rose only 0.8%. Real household disposable income still increased 2.7%. Meanwhile,...

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Dutch growth stayed positive, but cautious

by Paolo Maria Pavan

Mar 28, 2026

What is the situation? The Dutch economy grew 1.8% in 2025, below its 30-year average of 2%. In Q4, growth was 0.5% quarter on quarter. The economy added 67,000 jobs, but fixed asset investment fell 0...

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Profits Up, Margins Thinner

by Paolo Maria Pavan

Mar 27, 2026

What is the situation? Corporate profits rose by €5.2 billion in Q4 2025. However, the more important signal is weaker beneath the headline. Companies kept less margin on each euro of value created. T...

Paolo Maria Pavan TODAY'S MARKET PULSE

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