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Wholesale recovery rewards structure, not optimism

by Paolo Maria Pavan

Mar 24, 2026

What is the situation? Dutch wholesale revenue grew 0.9% in 2025 after two weak years. In Q4, growth reached 2.5%. Yet business confidence stayed negative for 16 straight quarters. That is the urgent ...

Investment falls, timing now matters

by Paolo Maria Pavan

Mar 23, 2026

What is the situation? Dutch business investment was 1.4% lower in January 2026 than a year earlier. That is still negative, but less severe than December 2025’s -2.3%. The decline was concentrated in...

When Energy Shocks Hit Cash Flow

by Paolo Maria Pavan

Mar 22, 2026

What is the situation? The ECB now expects eurozone inflation at 2.6% in 2026, up from 1.9%. The trigger is energy. Oil rose above €108 per barrel, gas increased by 50–60%, and Qatar reportedly lost 1...

Transport Growth Hides Margin Pressure

by Paolo Maria Pavan

Mar 22, 2026

What is the situation? Dutch transport revenue grew 4.4% in 2025, with bankruptcies down 26%. Yet business confidence is negative at -4.7.This divergence between subsectors is notable. Land transport ...

The labor market is shrinking permanently

by Paolo Maria Pavan

Mar 21, 2026

What is the situation? In 2025, 806,000 people in the Netherlands were out of work due to illness or disability. Of these, 79%, about 661,000, expect never to return. Meanwhile, the truly available ta...

Unemployment up, hiring still tight

by Paolo Maria Pavan

Mar 20, 2026

What is the situation? Unemployment in the Netherlands reached 4.1% in February 2026. This equals about 410,000 people. At the same time, 380,000 vacancies are available. That means there are 93 jobs ...

Dutch trade gap widens in January

by Paolo Maria Pavan

Mar 19, 2026

What is the situation? Dutch imports rose 5.0% in January 2026, while exports increased only 1.1%. That means import growth was about 4.5 times faster than export growth.The signal is not export recov...

Dutch resilience is expensive when storage is empty

by Paolo Maria Pavan

Mar 18, 2026

What is the situation? The Netherlands has a strong gas infrastructure, but a weak starting position. By 15 March 2026, Dutch gas storage had fallen to 7.4%, the lowest seasonal level since 2011 outsi...

Private credit stress reaches Dutch small business reality

by Paolo Maria Pavan

Mar 17, 2026

What is the situation? A liquidity warning has appeared in private credit. BlackRock’s HPS Corporate Lending Fund capped quarterly withdrawals at 5% after investors asked to redeem 9.3% in Q1 2026. Bl...

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